As the forecast started to deteriorate, I settled on my decision to leave Heart of Gold on the mooring at Trousers Point. The low that had been further north in the Tasman was looking like it would travel south and cross directly over Flinders Island. The forecast called for 30+ knots of wind directly from the east, then 12 hours later 30+ knots directly from the west.
At this point Supertramp had left so I was solo on the boat, and I didn’t like my options of travelling to a sheltered shore and getting a good set on the anchor in the eye of the low, between changes in wind direction. I also wasn’t familiar with any of the anchorages, particularly given the expected conditions. Navigating the channels up to Lady Barron wasn’t really an option given Heart of Golds’ motoring capabilities in short chop to windward, and I didn’t feel confident navigating the strong currents in the unfamiliar channels in such conditions.
These two screenshots show how the strong SE wind swung to strong from the West in 24hrs as the low moved over.